DAILY FOREX MARKET TECHNICAL ANALYZING REPORT
January 10th Financial News
Today’s Focus
Short Position
- Entry: Below 1.0300
- Targets: 1.0280 and 1.0262
Long Position
- Entry: Above 1.0300
- Targets: 1.0318 and 1.0338
As we approach critical levels, keep a close watch on price action around 1.0300. A break below could trigger a bearish move towards 1.0280 and 1.0262, while a push above could open the door for a rise towards 1.0318 and possibly 1.0338. Monitor key support and resistance levels to guide your trading decisions.
Please note: Daily support and resistance levels are marked on the chart to provide additional context for these setups.
FUNDAMENTAL
Euro area government bond yields hit fresh multi-month highs on Thursday with investors worried about stubborn service inflation rates and closely watching UK gilts after a two-day selloff. UK 10-year gilt yield was up 4 basis points (bps) to 4.84%, after jumping 11.5 bps the day before. Inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro picked up to 2.4% last month from 2.2% in November, lifted by more expensive energy and stubbornly high service costs, while a European Central Bank survey showed inflation expectations were rising.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
GBP/USD Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis
Short Position
- Entry: Below 1.2303
- Targets: 1.2240 and 1.2175
Long Position
- Entry: Above 1.2303
- Targets: 1.2368 and 1.2431
The 1.2303 level serves as a key pivot for potential price movement. A break below this level is expected to trigger a bearish move, with targets at 1.2240 and 1.2175. Conversely, if the price holds above 1.2303, the pair is likely to rally towards 1.2368, potentially reaching 1.2431.
Please note: Daily support and resistance levels are marked on the chart for additional context and precision in executing these setups.
FUNDAMENTAL
GBP/USD showed resilience in 2024, falling just 1% across the year. The pair experienced strong gains between April to September, rising from a low of 1.23 to a high of 1.34. However, GBP/USD fell 5% in the final quarter of the year amid notable USD strength, pulling GBP/USD from 1.34 to the 1.25 level where it trades at the time of writing.
While the pound booked losses against the US dollar in 2024, GBP’s performance against other major peers was impressive, rising solidly against EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD, and JPY.
GBP/USD has been supported across 2024 by the BoE cutting rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve and by the expectation that this trend would continue in 2025. However, Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, combined with the Labour government’s Budget, means that the outlook for both economies has changed, potentially impacting the direction of monetary policy in 2025 for both central banks and GBP/USD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
USD/JPY Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis
Long Position
- Entry: Above 158.02
- Targets: 158.47 and 158.84
Short Position
- Entry: Below 158.02
- Targets: 157.65 and 157.20
The 158.02 level is a critical pivot for USD/JPY. A break above this level could lead to bullish movement with targets at 158.47 and 158.84. However, a dip below 158.02 is expected to trigger a bearish move towards 157.65 and potentially 157.20.
Please note: Daily support and resistance levels are marked on the chart for additional context in executing these strategies.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
AUD/USD Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis
Long Position
- Entry: Above 0.62053
- Targets: 0.62185 and 0.62733
Short Position
- Entry: Below 0.62513
- Targets: 0.61920 and 0.61729
The 0.62053 level marks a key pivot for a potential bullish move, with targets at 0.62185 and 0.62733. Conversely, if the price drops below 0.62513, a bearish move towards 0.61920 and 0.61729 could unfold.
Please note: Daily support and resistance levels are marked on the chart to assist in refining trade entries and exits.
FUNDAMENTAL
Renewed expectations of RBA cuts
Weak Q3 growth figures for Australia revived bets of RBA cuts in 2025. The RBA cash rate futures curve has fully priced in 25bp to land in April, June and November. The anticipated -75bp of cuts would then see the RBA’s cash rate lowered from 4.35% to 3.6%. Incoming data for January will likely decide whether markets will bring forward that first cut to Q1, most notable of which will be the quarterly CPI figures in late January followed by incoming employment figures.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis
Long Position
- Entry: Above 73.26
- Targets: 74.20 and 74.66
Short Position
- Entry: Below 73.26
- Targets: 72.80 and 71.86
The 73.26 level serves as a crucial pivot. A break above this could lead to a bullish move, targeting 74.20 and 74.66. However, if the price falls below 73.26, a bearish scenario is likely, with targets at 72.80 and 71.86.
Please note: Daily support and resistance levels are marked on the chart to provide further context for these strategies.
FUNDAMENTAL
Crude oil prices in 2025 are set to be influenced by a mix of competing forces: China’s economic policies, Trump’s energy agenda, OPEC strategies, geopolitical conflicts, and the global shift to clean energy. The market remains range-bound, with uncertainty delaying a decisive breakout. Will 2025 be the year a clear direction emerges?
Key Events:
- OPEC and IEA Divergent Forecasts
- China’s Monetary Policies and Demand Potential
- Geopolitical reformations and risk premiums
- Trump’s Drill baby Drill Agenda
- Clean Energy Transitions
OPEC and IEA Forecasts
OPEC issued its fifth consecutive downward revision in December for 2024 oil demand forecasts, accompanied by another cut for 2025, citing economic growth risks in key markets like China. This marks the largest adjustment since June, following the group’s decision to extend output cuts. The 2024 demand estimate was reduced from 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.61 million bpd, while the 2025 forecast dropped from 1.54 million bpd to 1.45 million bpd. Despite these cuts, the global oil market is projected to return to a surplus in 2025, driven by increased production from non-OPEC members.
In contrast, the IEA predicts accelerated demand growth, with oil consumption rising from 840,000 bpd in 2024 to 1.1 million bpd in 2025, reaching a total of 103.9 million bpd. This increase is primarily attributed to petrochemical feedstocks, while transport fuel demand continues to lag due to technological advancements and changing consumer behavior.
These contrasting forecasts from OPEC and the IEA underscore the uncertainty surrounding oil prices, keeping the market in a range-bound consolidation phase. The longer this persists, the sharper and more decisive the eventual breakout—bullish or bearish—is expected to be.
China’s Monetary Policy and Demand
China is set to implement a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, marking its first such move in 14 years. The last instance of this approach occurred during the 2008–2009 financial crisis, when China stimulated its economy through interest rate cuts, reserve requirement reductions, and increased fiscal spending. These measures spurred rapid credit expansion, economic growth, and inflation but were scaled back in 2011 to mitigate bubble risks.
While the specifics of China’s 2025 policy remain unclear, a similarly aggressive approach is anticipated as a response to potential trade conflicts under Trump’s administration. If successful, this stimulus could significantly boost oil demand and shift forecasts to the upside. However, failure to achieve the desired economic impact—coupled with 2025’s oversupply risks from non-OPEC producers—could add notable bearish pressures.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
XAU/USD Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis
Long Position
- Entry: Above 2668
- Targets: 2680 and 2691
Short Position
- Entry: Below 2668
- Targets: 2658 and 2645
The 2668 level acts as a pivotal point for price action. A breakout above this level could lead to bullish movement towards 2680 and 2691. On the other hand, a drop below 2668 may signal a bearish trend with targets at 2658 and 2645.
Please note: Daily support and resistance levels are marked on the chart to help fine-tune your trade entries and exits.
FUNDAMENTAL
One of the key drivers of gold’s rally in 2024 was the expectation that global central banks would ease monetary policy as inflationary pressures receded. While rate cuts materialized, their impact on gold was moderated by lingering inflation concerns. In December, the Federal Reserve enacted an expected rate cut but caused a bit of volatility as it signaled caution for the year ahead due to persistent inflation risks, driven partly by expected US policy shifts, including tax cuts and tariffs under the Trump’s presidency. Similarly, the European Central Bank and Bank of England adopted a cautious approach, citing strong wage growth and inflationary stickiness. As a result, monetary policy is likely to remain tight in early 2025, potentially supporting bond yields and the US dollar—two factors that often work against gold’s appeal.
Elevated bond yields are particularly significant as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Concurrently, the US dollar’s resilience, bolstered by hawkish central bank policies and surprisingly strong economic data, has made gold relatively more expensive for buyers using weaker currencies. These dynamics could limit gold’s upside potential in the year’s first half.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Dow Jones Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis
Short Position
- Entry: Below 42,548.48
- Targets: 42,323 and 42,056
Long Position
- Entry: Above 42,548
- Targets: 42,842 and 42,908
The 42,548 level is critical for price action. A break below this level could lead to a bearish move, with targets at 42,323 and 42,056. Conversely, a rise above 42,548 could push the index higher, with potential targets at 42,842 and 42,908.
Please note: Daily support and resistance levels are marked on the chart for additional context in executing these setups.
FUNDAMENTAL
As we head into 2025, large-cap companies—many of which have weathered economic turbulence over the last few years—are set to experience accelerated earnings growth.
Historically, large-cap companies, particularly those in the Dow, have outperformed during periods of economic stabilization and growth due to their established market positions, robust cash flows, and operational efficiency.
In 2025, as inflationary pressures ease and consumer demand strengthens, Dow constituents in sectors such as industrials, consumer staples, and healthcare are likely to lead the charge in forward earnings growth.
Companies like Caterpillar, Procter & Gamble, and UnitedHealth Group have shown resilience, and they stand to benefit significantly from improved profit margins driven by higher productivity and lower input costs.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always perform your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Disclaimer: The figures provided are based on current technical analysis and should not be considered financial advice. Always seek guidance from a professional financial advisor before engaging in forex trading.
Notice: The data presented is derived from technical analysis and does not constitute financial advice. For those trading in forex, consulting a qualified financial advisor prior to making investment decisions is strongly recommended.
Caution: The information above reflects ongoing technical analysis and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Forex trading involves high volatility, and without proper knowledge, you risk losing all your capital. It is essential to consult with a financial advisor before investing.
Advisory: The insights shared are the result of technical analysis and are not intended as financial advice. Forex traders should seek advice from professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Remember, the forex market is highly volatile, and trading without adequate knowledge can lead to significant losses.
Important: The analysis provided is for informational purposes only and should not be seen as financial advice. Forex trading carries substantial risks, and it is advisable to consult financial advisors before proceeding with any investments. This content is intended solely for Wealth Management Education purposes.