Daily Market outlook

Daily Market Outlook, 30th Of April, 2025

April 30, 2025
sevenblog

RISK WARNING: This report is for educational purposes only. Trading forex involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trade at your own risk. Always use proper risk management strategies to protect your capital.

As of April 30, 2025, global markets are navigating a complex landscape marked by heightened trade tensions, slowing growth, and increased financial volatility. Here’s a comprehensive overview of the current global market conditions:​

🌐 Global Economic Overview

  • Trade Tensions and Tariffs: The recent imposition of sweeping U.S. tariffs, including a 145% levy on Chinese imports, has disrupted global trade dynamics. These measures have led to retaliatory actions, strained international relations, and increased uncertainty in global markets. ​
  • Growth Projections: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global growth forecast downward to 2.8% for 2025, citing escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties as primary factors. Similarly, the World Bank projects a steady but modest global growth rate of 2.7% for 2025-26, indicating a settling into a low-growth environment. ​
  • Inflation and Commodity Prices: While global headline inflation is expected to decline, the World Bank anticipates a significant drop in commodity prices, returning to pre-COVID-19 levels. Energy prices, including Brent crude oil, are projected to decrease due to ample supply and reduced demand, particularly from increased electric vehicle usage in China. ​

📉 Financial Markets and Investor Sentiment

  • Stock Market Volatility: The announcement of new U.S. tariffs in early April triggered a global stock market downturn, marking the largest decline since the 2020 pandemic-induced crash. Major indices experienced significant losses, reflecting investor concerns over the escalating trade war and its potential impact on global economic stability. ​
  • Consumer Confidence: In the U.S., consumer confidence has plummeted to a nearly five-year low in April, influenced by fears over the economic repercussions of the trade war and rising prices. This decline in consumer sentiment could further dampen economic activity in the coming months.
  • Corporate Responses: Financial institutions like HSBC and Deutsche Bank are bracing for potential economic fallout from the ongoing trade disputes by increasing provisions for bad loans. HSBC, for instance, has set aside an additional $200 million for expected credit losses, highlighting concerns over a deteriorating economic outlook. ​

🏦 Policy Responses and Outlook

  • Central Bank Actions: The U.S. Federal Reserve has indicated a cautious approach to adjusting interest rates, opting to wait for further clarity on fiscal policy and trade developments. The current median estimate suggests two 0.25% rate cuts in 2025. ​
  • Calls for Cooperation: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has urged global leaders to swiftly resolve escalating trade disputes, emphasizing that trade-related uncertainty is causing businesses to delay investment and consumers to reduce spending. ​

📊 Sectoral Highlights

  • Emerging Markets: Despite global challenges, emerging markets have shown resilience, delivering positive returns in recent months. However, these economies remain vulnerable to external shocks, particularly from trade disruptions and commodity price volatility. ​
  • Energy Sector: The energy sector is experiencing a downturn, with oil prices declining due to oversupply and decreased demand. The World Bank projects energy prices to fall significantly, which could impact energy-exporting countries and companies. ​

In summary, the global economic environment in April 2025 is characterized by heightened uncertainty stemming from trade tensions, slowing growth, and volatile financial markets. Policymakers and investors are closely monitoring developments, with a focus on resolving trade disputes and implementing measures to stabilize the global economy.

Master Trade Planner

Instrument Bias Long Entry Long SL Long TP1 Long TP2 Short Entry Short SL Short TP1 Short TP2
EURUSD Bullish 1.1405 1.1360 1.1450 1.1535 1.1340 1.1385 1.1280 1.1250
XAUUSD Consolidation 3,320 3,280 3,350 3,400 3,280 3,320 3,250 3,200
GBPUSD Bullish 1.3455 1.3390 1.3500 1.3600 1.3340 1.3400 1.3250 1.3080
USOIL Bearish 60.00 59.00 61.00 62.00 59.00 60.00 58.00 56.50
US30 Bullish 40,500 40,100 40,800 41,000 40,100 40,500 39,800 39,500

📚 Detailed Instrument Analysis

💶 EURUSD

  • Pivot Points:

    • PP: 1.1367

    • R1: 1.1400

    • R2: 1.1450

    • S1: 1.1335

    • S2: 1.1280

  • Fibonacci Levels:

    • 38.2%: 1.1375

    • 50.0%: 1.1360

    • 61.8%: 1.1345

  • Technical Indicators:

    • Price is testing the upper boundary of a triangle pattern.

    • Moving Averages and Stochastic Oscillator indicate bullish momentum.

  • Wyckoff Phase: Re-accumulation

  • Support & Resistance:

    • Support: 1.1340, 1.1280

    • Resistance: 1.1405, 1.1450

  • Trade Setups:

    • Long: Entry above 1.1405, SL at 1.1360, TP1 at 1.1450, TP2 at 1.1535

    • Short: Entry below 1.1340, SL at 1.1385, TP1 at 1.1280, TP2 at 1.1250

🪙 XAUUSD

  • Pivot Points:

    • PP: 3,305

    • R1: 3,320

    • R2: 3,350

    • S1: 3,280

    • S2: 3,250

  • Fibonacci Levels:

    • 38.2%: 3,315

    • 50.0%: 3,310

    • 61.8%: 3,305

  • Technical Indicators:

    • Recent pullback from record highs; potential consolidation phase.

  • Wyckoff Phase: Distribution

  • Support & Resistance:

    • Support: 3,280, 3,250

    • Resistance: 3,320, 3,350

  • Trade Setups:

    • Long: Entry above 3,320, SL at 3,280, TP1 at 3,350, TP2 at 3,400

    • Short: Entry below 3,280, SL at 3,320, TP1 at 3,250, TP2 at 3,200

💷 GBPUSD

  • Pivot Points:

    • PP: 1.3390

    • R1: 1.3450

    • R2: 1.3500

    • S1: 1.3340

    • S2: 1.3250

  • Fibonacci Levels:

    • 38.2%: 1.3410

    • 50.0%: 1.3395

    • 61.8%: 1.3380

  • Technical Indicators:

    • Consolidation around 1.3343 with potential rise to 1.3455.

  • Wyckoff Phase: Accumulation

  • Support & Resistance:

    • Support: 1.3340, 1.3250

    • Resistance: 1.3455, 1.3500

  • Trade Setups:

    • Long: Entry above 1.3455, SL at 1.3390, TP1 at 1.3500, TP2 at 1.3600

    • Short: Entry below 1.3340, SL at 1.3400, TP1 at 1.3250, TP2 at 1.3080

🛢️ USOIL

  • Pivot Points:

    • PP: 60.00

    • R1: 61.00

    • R2: 62.00

    • S1: 59.00

    • S2: 58.00

  • Fibonacci Levels:

    • 38.2%: 60.80

    • 50.0%: 60.00

    • 61.8%: 59.20

  • Technical Indicators:

    • Bearish trend with potential for further decline due to oversupply concerns.

  • Wyckoff Phase: Markdown

  • Support & Resistance:

    • Support: 59.00, 58.00

    • Resistance: 60.00, 61.00

  • Trade Setups:

    • Long: Entry above 60.00, SL at 59.00, TP1 at 61.00, TP2 at 62.00

    • Short: Entry below 59.00, SL at 60.00, TP1 at 58.00, TP2 at 56.50

📈 US30

  • Pivot Points:

    • PP: 40,400

    • R1: 40,800

    • R2: 41,000

    • S1: 40,100

    • S2: 39,800

  • Fibonacci Levels:

    • 38.2%: 40,340

    • 50.0%: 40,250

    • 61.8%: 40,160

  • Technical Indicators:

    • Neutral signals with potential for bullish continuation.

  • Wyckoff Phase: Markup

  • Support & Resistance:

    • Support: 40,100, 39,800

    • Resistance: 40,800, 41,000

  • Trade Setups:

    • Long: Entry above 40,500, SL at 40,100, TP1 at 40,800, TP2 at 41,000

    • Short: Entry below 40,100, SL at 40,500, TP1 at 39,800, TP2 at 39,500