Daily Market Outlook, 23rd Of April, 2025
RISK WARNING: This report is for educational purposes only. Trading forex involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trade at your own risk. Always use proper risk management strategies to protect your capital.
💶 EUR/USD
EUR/USD holds losses below 1.1400 in the European morning on Wednesday. The Euro stays defensive ahead of the German and Eurozone preliminary PMI data while the US Dollar pauses its recovery mode led by Trump’s backpedaling on the US-China trade war and Powell. US PMI also awaited.
Fib Level: Based on the current price of 1.13851, the EUR/USD pair is positioned near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which suggests it is in a minor pullback phase. This level often acts as a weak support or resistance zone, depending on the market’s direction. If the price moves lower, it could test the 38.2% level (1.1320), while a downward move might target the 50.0% level (1.1300).
Bollinger Bands: EURUSD on the Daily Chart is showing retracement correction from the Upper Band/ Overbought area hence suggesting a slowdown in the Bullish Momentum
Wyckoff Theory: Based on the current price of 1.13851, the EUR/USD pair appears to be in the distribution phase. This phase is characterized by large players selling their positions, leading to a potential imbalance in supply and demand. The price may consolidate within a range before breaking downward into the markdown phase.
Elliott Wave analysis: the EUR/USD pair appears to be in an impulsive phase according to Elliott Wave theory. It seems to be progressing through Wave 3, which is typically characterized by strong directional movement and high momentum. This wave is often the most extended and powerful in the sequence.
Key observations:
- Wave 2 has likely completed, and the pair is now advancing in Wave 3.
- The next potential resistance level aligns with 1.1450, which could act as a target for this impulsive wave.
- A corrective Wave 4 may follow, leading to consolidation before the final Wave 5.
Monitoring invalidation levels is crucial. If the price drops below 1.1350, it could invalidate the current wave count and require a reassessment of the structure.
Pivot Analysis:
| Resistance 3 | 1.1636 |
| Resistance 2 | 1.1592 |
| Resistance 1 | 1.1506 |
| Pivot Point | 1.1462 |
| Support 1 | 1.1376 |
| Support 2 | 1.1332 |
| Support 3 | 1.1246 |
Trade Set up:
Long setup for EUR/USD:
- Entry Level: Enter around 1.13860, slightly above the current rate to confirm bullish momentum.
- Stop Loss: Place your stop loss at 1.13650, below the recent support level to manage risk.
- Target 1: Aim for 1.14100, a nearby resistance level for initial profit.
- Target 2: If the bullish trend continues, set the second target at 1.14450, aligning with the next resistance zone.
For a short setup on EUR/USD here’s a potential trading plan:
- Entry Level: Enter around 1.13840, slightly below the current rate to confirm bearish momentum.
- Stop Loss: Place your stop loss at 1.14000, above the recent resistance level to manage risk.
- Target 1: Aim for 1.13550, a nearby support level for initial profit.
- Target 2: If the bearish trend continues, set the second target at 1.13300, aligning with the next support zone.
RISK WARNING: This report is for educational purposes only. Trading forex involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trade at your own risk. Always use proper risk management strategies to protect your capital.
🪙 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold price touches fresh weekly low, below $3,300 amid easing US-China trade tensions
Fibonacci Level: Gold has broken below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its recent rally from the mid-$2,900s. This breach suggests potential for further downside movement, with the next significant support levels at the 38.2% retracement near $3,250 and the 61.8% level around $3,160.
Analysts indicate that if gold prices fall below the $3,305 support level, it could signal a continuation of the bearish trend, potentially targeting the $3,255 area.
Bollinger Band: The positioning near the Daily upper Bollinger Band suggests that gold is experiencing strong bullish momentum. However, it also indicates that the asset may be entering overbought territory, which could lead to a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term.
Investors should monitor key support levels, such as the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which coincides with the middle Bollinger Band. A break below this level could signal a shift in momentum. Conversely, if gold continues to trade near or above the upper Bollinger Band, it may indicate sustained bullish sentiment.
Wyckoff Theory : Based on recent market behavior, gold appears to be in a late re-accumulation phase, transitioning into the markup phase.
- Resistance: Around $3,335, where gold has previously faced selling pressure.
- Support: Near $3,305, which could serve as a springboard for further price increases if it holds.
Elliot Wave: As of April 23, 2025, with gold (XAU/USD) trading around $3,315 per ounce, Elliott Wave analysis suggests that gold is in a bullish impulsive phase, specifically within wave ((iii)) of a higher-degree impulse that began from the December 18, 2024 low at $2,656.3. This indicates that the current upward movement is part of a larger five-wave structure, with wave ((iii)) expected to extend further before a corrective wave ((iv)) occurs.
Pivot Point:
| Resistance 3 | 3,598.36 |
| Resistance 2 | 3,549.18 |
| Resistance 1 | 3,465.10 |
| Pivot Point | 3,415.92 |
| Support 1 | 3,331.84 |
| Support 2 | 3,282.66 |
| Support 3 | 3,198.58 |
Long Trade Setup (Bullish Bias)
Entry:
- Look to go long if gold breaks and closes above $3,335–$3,340 resistance on strong volume.
- Alternatively, buy near $3,305–$3,292 support if there’s a bullish reversal signal (e.g., bullish engulfing candle, hammer).
Stop Loss:
- Just below recent swing low or support, around $3,290–$3,285.
Take Profit Targets:
- First TP near $3,360 (recent high zone)
- Next TP around $3,400+ if momentum continues.
Short Trade Setup (Bearish Bias)
Entry:
- Enter short if price fails to break above $3,335 and shows rejection (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing).
- Or break below $3,290 with momentum.
Stop Loss:
- Just above recent highs or resistance, around $3,340–$3,345.
Take Profit Targets:
- First TP at $3,270–$3,250
- Next TP at $3,200 if breakdown continues
RISK WARNING: This report is for educational purposes only. Trading forex involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trade at your own risk. Always use proper risk management strategies to protect your capital.