Daily Market outlook

Daily Market Outlook, 13th of January, 2025

January 13, 2025
Seven Blog

DAILY FOREX MARKET TECHNICAL ANALYZING REPORT

January 13th Financial News

 Quick Facts
  1. The U.S. announces new sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.
  2. Yoon Suk-yeol will not attend first impeachment trial hearing.
  3. Fed’s Goolsbee says jobs data shows labor market stabilizing.
  4. Canada adds the most jobs in two years in December.
  5. U.S. labor market remains robust, paving way for slower rate cuts.

News Details

The U.S. announces new sanctions on Russia’s energy sector

The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement in response to the new sanctions imposed by the U.S.

Yoon Suk-yeol will not attend first impeachment trial hearing

South Korea’s impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, will not attend the first hearing of the trial to determine whether he will be removed from office or reinstated, due to concerns about his safety, Yoon Kab-keun, the lawyer representing the president said on January 12.

Fed’s Goolsbee says jobs data shows labor market stabilizing

The latest non-farm payroll report suggests the labor market is stabilizing at full employment without signs of overheating, said Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, last Friday.

Canada adds the most jobs in two years in December

In December 2024, Canada recorded its largest job growth in two years, with employment rising by 91,000 jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 6.7%. Economists surveyed had previously expected employment to increase modestly by 25,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.9%.

The employment growth in December stands in stark contrast to most of last year when hiring failed to keep pace with population growth and the unemployment rate surged.

U.S. labor market remains robust, paving way for slower rate cuts

U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, significantly exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate declined. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged from the previous value, and the month-over-month growth in wages slowed.

Breaking down the data, education and healthcare services, leisure and hospitality, and government sectors were the primary drivers of non-farm payroll growth. Additionally, retail employment turned positive from negative, likely boosted by strong consumer shopping demand during the year-end holiday season, while employment in transportation and warehousing also increased.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

 

 

EUR/USD Trading Strategy: Daily Insights

Here’s a refined recommendation for EUR/USD trading:

Short Position:

  • Entry Point: Below 1.0255
  • Targets: 1.0198 and 1.0156

Long Position:

  • Entry Point: Above 1.0255
  • Targets: 1.0297 and 1.0354

This setup indicates bearish momentum below 1.0255 and bullish momentum above it. Proper risk management and consideration of key economic events are essential for effective trade execution. Additionally, long-term support and resistance levels provided in the chart can enhance daily technical analysis. Please note, this is not financial advice; all analysis is based on the daily chart. Trade at your own risk. Happy trading!

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

GBP/USD Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis

GBP/USD Trading Recommendation:

Short Position:

  • Entry Point: Below 1.2238
  • Targets: 1.2155 and 1.2107

Long Position:

  • Entry Point: Above 1.2238
  • Targets: 1.2286 and 1.2369

This setup suggests bearish momentum below 1.2238 and bullish momentum above it. Proper risk management and attention to key economic indicators are essential for effective trading. Additionally, long-term support and resistance levels provided in the chart can enhance daily technical analysis.

Please note, this is not financial advice; all analysis is based on the daily chart. Trade at your own risk. Happy trading!

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

USD/JPY Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis

USD/JPY Trading Recommendation:

Short Position:

  • Entry Point: Below 157.93
  • Targets: 156.98 and 156.28

Long Position:

  • Entry Point: Above 157.93
  • Targets: 158.63 and 159.58

This setup suggests bearish momentum below 157.93 and bullish momentum above it. Proper risk management and attention to key economic indicators are essential for effective trading. Additionally, long-term support and resistance levels provided in the chart can enhance daily technical analysis.

Please note, this is not financial advice; all analysis is based on the daily chart. Trade at your own risk. Happy trading!

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

AUD/USD Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis

 

AUD/USD Trading Recommendation:

Short Position:

  • Entry Point: Below 0.61279
  • Targets: 0.60153 and 0.59712

Long Position:

  • Entry Point: Above 0.61621
  • Targets: 0.63531 and 0.63592

This setup suggests bearish momentum below 0.61279 and bullish momentum above 0.61621. Proper risk management and attention to key economic indicators are essential for effective trading. Additionally, long-term support and resistance levels provided in the chart can enhance daily technical analysis.

Please note, this is not financial advice; all analysis is based on the daily chart. Trade at your own risk. Happy trading!

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis

 

 

Crude Oil Trading Recommendation:

Long Position:

  • Entry Point: Above 75.44
  • Targets: 77.45 and 79.04

Short Position:

  • Below 75.44: Likely to fall towards 73.85 then 71.86

This setup suggests bearish momentum below 75.44 and bullish momentum above it. Proper risk management and attention to key economic indicators are essential for effective trading. Additionally, long-term support and resistance levels provided in the chart can enhance daily technical analysis.

Please note, this is not financial advice; all analysis is based on the daily chart. Trade at your own risk. Happy trading!

FUNDAMENTAL

Crude oil prices in 2025 are set to be influenced by a mix of competing forces: China’s economic policies, Trump’s energy agenda, OPEC strategies, geopolitical conflicts, and the global shift to clean energy. The market remains range-bound, with uncertainty delaying a decisive breakout. Will 2025 be the year a clear direction emerges?

Key Events:

  • OPEC and IEA Divergent Forecasts
  • China’s Monetary Policies and Demand Potential
  • Geopolitical reformations and risk premiums
  • Trump’s Drill baby Drill Agenda
  • Clean Energy Transitions

OPEC and IEA Forecasts

OPEC issued its fifth consecutive downward revision in December for 2024 oil demand forecasts, accompanied by another cut for 2025, citing economic growth risks in key markets like China. This marks the largest adjustment since June, following the group’s decision to extend output cuts. The 2024 demand estimate was reduced from 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.61 million bpd, while the 2025 forecast dropped from 1.54 million bpd to 1.45 million bpd. Despite these cuts, the global oil market is projected to return to a surplus in 2025, driven by increased production from non-OPEC members.

In contrast, the IEA predicts accelerated demand growth, with oil consumption rising from 840,000 bpd in 2024 to 1.1 million bpd in 2025, reaching a total of 103.9 million bpd. This increase is primarily attributed to petrochemical feedstocks, while transport fuel demand continues to lag due to technological advancements and changing consumer behavior.

These contrasting forecasts from OPEC and the IEA underscore the uncertainty surrounding oil prices, keeping the market in a range-bound consolidation phase. The longer this persists, the sharper and more decisive the eventual breakout—bullish or bearish—is expected to be.

China’s Monetary Policy and Demand

China is set to implement a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, marking its first such move in 14 years. The last instance of this approach occurred during the 2008–2009 financial crisis, when China stimulated its economy through interest rate cuts, reserve requirement reductions, and increased fiscal spending. These measures spurred rapid credit expansion, economic growth, and inflation but were scaled back in 2011 to mitigate bubble risks.

While the specifics of China’s 2025 policy remain unclear, a similarly aggressive approach is anticipated as a response to potential trade conflicts under Trump’s administration. If successful, this stimulus could significantly boost oil demand and shift forecasts to the upside. However, failure to achieve the desired economic impact—coupled with 2025’s oversupply risks from non-OPEC producers—could add notable bearish pressures.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

 

XAU/USD Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis

 

XAU/USD Trading Recommendation:

Long Position:

  • Entry Point: Above 2683
  • Targets: 2703 and 2717

Short Position:

  • Below 2683: Likely to fall towards 2669 then 2650

This setup suggests bullish momentum above 2683 and bearish momentum below it. Proper risk management and attention to key economic indicators are essential for effective trading. Additionally, long-term support and resistance levels provided in the chart can enhance daily technical analysis.

Please note, this is not financial advice; all analysis is based on the daily chart. Trade at your own risk. Happy trading!

FUNDAMENTAL

One of the key drivers of gold’s rally in 2024 was the expectation that global central banks would ease monetary policy as inflationary pressures receded. While rate cuts materialized, their impact on gold was moderated by lingering inflation concerns. In December, the Federal Reserve enacted an expected rate cut but caused a bit of volatility as it signaled caution for the year ahead due to persistent inflation risks, driven partly by expected US policy shifts, including tax cuts and tariffs under the Trump’s presidency. Similarly, the European Central Bank and Bank of England adopted a cautious approach, citing strong wage growth and inflationary stickiness. As a result, monetary policy is likely to remain tight in early 2025, potentially supporting bond yields and the US dollar—two factors that often work against gold’s appeal.

 

Elevated bond yields are particularly significant as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Concurrently, the US dollar’s resilience, bolstered by hawkish central bank policies and surprisingly strong economic data, has made gold relatively more expensive for buyers using weaker currencies. These dynamics could limit gold’s upside potential in the year’s first half.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

Dow Jones Trading Strategy: Daily Analysis

 

 

Dow Jones Trading Recommendation:

Short Position:

  • Entry Point: Below 42049
  • Targets: 41550 and 41235

Long Position:

  • Entry Point: Above 42049
  • Targets: 42363 and 42865

This setup suggests bearish momentum below 42049 and bullish momentum above it. Proper risk management and attention to key economic indicators are essential for effective trading. Additionally, long-term support and resistance levels provided in the chart can enhance daily technical analysis.

Please note, this is not financial advice; all analysis is based on the daily chart. Trade at your own risk. Happy trading!

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

 

 

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always perform your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.

Disclaimer: The figures provided are based on current technical analysis and should not be considered financial advice. Always seek guidance from a professional financial advisor before engaging in forex trading.

Notice: The data presented is derived from technical analysis and does not constitute financial advice. For those trading in forex, consulting a qualified financial advisor prior to making investment decisions is strongly recommended.

Caution: The information above reflects ongoing technical analysis and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Forex trading involves high volatility, and without proper knowledge, you risk losing all your capital. It is essential to consult with a financial advisor before investing.

Advisory: The insights shared are the result of technical analysis and are not intended as financial advice. Forex traders should seek advice from professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Remember, the forex market is highly volatile, and trading without adequate knowledge can lead to significant losses.

Important: The analysis provided is for informational purposes only and should not be seen as financial advice. Forex trading carries substantial risks, and it is advisable to consult financial advisors before proceeding with any investments. This content is intended solely for Wealth Management Education purposes.