RISK WARNING: This report is for educational purposes only. Trading forex involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trade at your own risk. Always use proper risk management strategies to protect your capital.

 

💶 EUR/USD

​ The EUR/USD pair is experiencing a modest downward correction after reaching a recent peak of 1.1572. Analysts suggest that this pullback could extend further, but significant support is anticipated near the 1.1300 level. A decisive break below this support might expose the pair to the next support zone around 1.1185

Technical Indicators

• Support Levels: Key support is identified at 1.1345, with a more substantial support zone around 1.1300. A breach below these levels could signal a deeper correction.​
• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is observed at 1.1572, the 2025 high, followed by 1.1600. A break above these levels would indicate a resumption of the broader up
• Momentum Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory, suggesting that the overall upward momentum is intact despite the current pullback.

Key Fibonacci Levels

Analyzing the recent uptrend from the April low to the high near 1.1572, the following Fibonacci retracement levels are noteworthy:​

• 38.2% Retracement (~1.1300): This level coincides with the S1 Pivot Point at 1.1294, suggesting a potential support area where buyers might emerge.
• 61.8% Retracement (~1.1150): A deeper pullback could find support here, aligning with the 100 SMA on the 4-hour chart and a trend line that has held since March.
• Additionally, the 61.8% retracement level of the broader move from 1.2349 to 0.9535 is at 1.1274, which has reverted to solid support after recent tests.​

📈 Outlook Based on Fibonacci Analysis

• Bullish Scenario: If EUR/USD maintains support above 1.1300, it could resume its upward trajectory, targeting the recent high at 1.1572 and potentially extending towards the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 1.1694.
• Bearish Scenario: A decisive break below 1.1300 may lead to further declines, with potential support at 1.1274 and deeper at 1.1150. A breach of these levels could expose the pair to the 1.1065 area.​

Bollinger Bands. Given the current positioning near the lower Bollinger Band and the formation of bullish technical patterns, the EUR/USD may experience a short-term upward correction. However, if the pair fails to maintain support at 1.1335, further declines could be anticipated, potentially targeting the 1.1280 level. ​

Traders should monitor key levels:​

• Support: 1.1335, followed by 1.1280​
• Resistance: 1.1495, with a break above potentially targeting 1.1565

Applying Wyckoff theory to its recent price action suggests the pair may be in a re-accumulation phase within a broader uptrend.

Elliott Wave Analysis: with EUR/USD trading around 1.1338, Elliott Wave analysis indicates a bullish outlook, suggesting the pair is in the midst of an impulsive upward movement.

Fundamental Factors

 

The fundamental outlook for EUR/USD today suggests a cautiously bullish bias, primarily driven by U.S. dollar weakness amid trade tensions. However, Eurozone economic challenges could cap significant gains. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as developments in global trade policies, for further direction.

EUR/USD Daily Pivot Levels

• Pivot Point (PP): 1.1367
• Resistance 1 (R1): 1.1420
• Resistance 2 (R2): 1.1450
• Resistance 3 (R3): 1.1503
• Support 1 (S1): 1.1337
• Support 2 (S2): 1.1284
• Support 3 (S3): 1.1254​

Technical Outlook

• Current Position: EUR/USD is trading just below the daily pivot point at 1.1367, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish intraday bias.​
• Support Levels: Immediate support is at S1 (1.1337). A break below this level could lead to further declines towards S2 (1.1284) and S3 (1.1254).​
• Resistance Levels: On the upside, R1 (1.1420) serves as the first resistance. A move above this could target R2 (1.1450) and R3 (1.1503).

Long Trade Setup

 Setup Premise: EUR/USD has pulled back near key support (S1 and 38.2% Fib), holding above 1.1335, suggesting a potential rebound if momentum shifts.

🔹 Entry:

• Buy near 1.1335–1.1340 (just above S1 support and lower Bollinger Band)

🔹 Stop Loss:

• Below 1.1280 (just under S2 and previous swing low)

🔹 Take Profit:

• Target 1: 1.1420 (R1)
• Target 2: 1.1450 (R2)
• Aggressive Target: 1.1503 (R3)

Short Trade Setup

Setup Premise: If EUR/USD fails to hold 1.1335 and breaks down, deeper correction is likely toward 1.1280–1.1250.

🔹 Entry:

• Sell on break below 1.1330, or on a pullback to 1.1345 if resistance holds

🔹 Stop Loss:

• Above 1.1375 (above Pivot Point and recent high)

🔹 Take Profit:

• Target 1: 1.1284 (S2)
• Target 2: 1.1254 (S3)
• Aggressive Target: 1.1180 (Fib and previous base)

 

 

RISK WARNING: This report is for educational purposes only. Trading forex involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trade at your own risk. Always use proper risk management strategies to protect your capital.

 

🪙 Gold (XAU/USD)

 

Daily Pivot Point Levels

Using the standard pivot point calculation:​

• Pivot Point (PP): $3,350
• Resistance Levels:
  • R1: $3,395
  • R2: $3,440
  • R3: $3,485
• Support Levels:
  • S1: $3,305
  • S2: $3,260
  • S3: $3,215

Currently, gold is trading near the S1 level, indicating a potential support zone.

📐 Fibonacci Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement from the December 2024 low to the recent high near $3,500:​

• 38.2% Retracement: Approximately $3,145
• 61.8% Retracement: Approximately $2,955
• 78.6% Retracement: Approximately $2,790

These levels coincide with historical support zones and may serve as potential areas for price reversals. ​

📉 Bollinger Bands Outlook

Gold recently formed a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern, accompanied by a decline in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting a potential momentum reversal.

📈 Elliott Wave Analysis

Gold is exhibiting a 5-wave impulsive structure from the December 2024 low:

• Wave (i): Completed at $2,785.87
• Wave (ii): Completed at $2,730.23
• Wave (iii): Completed at $2,798.55
• Wave (iv): Completed at $2,788.43
• Wave (v): Currently unfolding, with expectations to complete soon.​

A subsequent corrective phase (Wave ((ii))) is anticipated, potentially retracing 50–61.8% of the recent advance. ​

🧱 Wyckoff Theory Perspective

Gold’s recent price action suggests a potential distribution phase, characterized by:​

• Preliminary Supply (PSY): Initial signs of selling pressure near $3,500
• Buying Climax (BC): Peak at $3,500
• Automatic Reaction (AR): Pullback to $3,350
• Secondary Test (ST): Retest of highs with diminished volume​InvestopediaReddit

If the price fails to break above the $3,500 resistance, a markdown phase may ensue, targeting lower support levels.​

📌 Trade Setups

🟩 Long Position

• Entry: Around $3,305 (current price)
• Stop Loss: Below $3,260
• Take Profit:
  • Target 1: $3,395
  • Target 2: $3,440
  • Target 3: $3,485​

🟥 Short Position

• Entry: Below $3,260
• Stop Loss: Above $3,305
• Take Profit:
  • Target 1: $3,215
  • Target 2: $3,145
  • Target 3: $2,955​

• RISK WARNING: This report is for educational purposes only. Trading forex involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trade at your own risk. Always use proper risk management strategies to protect your capital.

 

💷 GBP/USD

 

Daily Pivot Point Levels

Based on the standard pivot point calculation:​

• Pivot Point (PP): 1.3276
• Resistance Levels:
  • R1: 1.3319
  • R2: 1.3362
  • R3: 1.3405
• Support Levels:
  • S1: 1.3212
  • S2: 1.3169
  • S3: 1.3126

Currently, GBP/USD is trading just above the pivot point, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish intraday bias. ​

📐 Fibonacci Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement from the recent low of 1.2099 to the high of 1.3422:​

• 23.6% Retracement: 1.3250
• 38.2% Retracement: 1.3150
• 61.8% Retracement: 1.2917​

The pair is currently testing the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3250, which may serve as a support zone. ​

📉 Bollinger Bands Outlook

GBP/USD has recently tested the lower Bollinger Band, forming a Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart, suggesting a potential rebound. The upper Bollinger Band is near 1.3475, which could act as a resistance level if the bullish momentum continues. ​

📈 Elliott Wave Analysis

The Elliott Wave structure indicates that GBP/USD is in a bullish impulsive phase:

• Wave (i): Completed at 1.2850
• Wave (ii): Completed at 1.2700
• Wave (iii): Currently unfolding, targeting the 1.3500–1.4000 range.​

This suggests further upside potential in the medium term. ​

🧱 Wyckoff Theory Perspective

GBP/USD appears to be in a re-accumulation phase within a broader uptrend:​

• Preliminary Support (PS): Around 1.2700
• Selling Climax (SC): Near 1.2500
• Automatic Rally (AR): Up to 1.3300
• Secondary Test (ST): Retesting the 1.2700–1.2800 zone​

A breakout above 1.3420 could signal the start of a new markup phase. ​

🔍 Fundamental Outlook

• Bank of England (BoE) Policy: The IMF expects three BoE rate cuts in 2025, with UK GDP growth downgraded to 1.1%. ​
• Trade Relations: UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is optimistic about trade discussions with the U.S., focusing on mitigating import tariffs.
• Economic Data: Upcoming U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data at 15:30 EET could impact GBP/USD volatility. ​

📌 Trade Setups

🟩 Long Position

• Entry: Around 1.3280
• Stop Loss: Below 1.3250
• Take Profit:
  • Target 1: 1.3370
  • Target 2: 1.3420
  • Target 3: 1.3475

This setup aligns with the bullish technical indicators and the potential for a breakout above recent resistance levels. ​

🟥 Short Position

• Entry: Below 1.3250
• Stop Loss: Above 1.3280
• Take Profit:
  • Target 1: 1.3150
  • Target 2: 1.3100
  • Target 3: 1.3000​

 

• RISK WARNING:This report is for educational purposes only. Trading forex involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trade at your own risk. Always use proper risk management strategies to protect your capital.