DAILY FOREX MARKET TECHNICAL ANALYZING REPORT
January 9th Financial News
Summary
Trump is considering a national economic emergency declaration to impose tariffs. The Fed’s meeting minutes show rising inflation concerns and a potential slowdown in rate cuts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports record U.S. oil imports from Canada ahead of tariff threat.
Quick Facts
- Trump considers declaring national economic emergency to impose tariffs.
- Fed minutes note inflation concerns and potential slowdown in rate cuts.
- Timiraos says Fed minutes show officials will hold rates steady for now.
- Villeroy says ECB should keep easing to reach neutral by summer.
- EIA reports record U.S. oil imports from Canada ahead of tariff threat.
News Details
Trump considers declaring national economic emergency to impose tariffs
Fed minutes note inflation concerns and potential slowdown in rate cuts
Timiraos says Fed minutes show officials will hold rates steady for now
Villeroy says ECB should keep easing to reach neutral by summer
EIA reports record U.S. oil imports from Canada ahead of tariff threat
Today’s Focus
UTC+8 22:00 Philadelphia Fed President Harker Speaks
UTC+8 23:00 U.S. Wholesale Sales MoM (Nov)
UTC+8 00:00 Next Day: Bank of England Deputy Governor Broadbent Speaks on Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook
UTC+8 01:40 Next Day: Richmond Fed President Barkin Speaks
UTC+8 02:30 Next Day: Kansas Fed President Schmid Discusses Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook
EUR/USD: Below 1.0255 Before Further Losses Can be Expected
PIVOT POINT – 1.03166
EUR/USD is more is likely to trade in a 1.0275/1.0355 range
24-HOUR VIEW: “After EUR rose to 1.0434 two days ago and then pulled back sharply, we noted yesterday that ‘there has been a slight increase in downward momentum.’ We expected EUR to ‘edge lower and test 1.0320,’ but we were of the view that ‘the major support at 1.0300 is unlikely to come under threat.’ While our view of a lower EUR was correct, the price action did not turn out as we expected, as EUR plummeted to a low of 1.0273. It then recovered quickly to close lower by 0.20% at 1.0318. The brief decline did not result in a significant increase in downward momentum. Instead of declining further today, EUR is more likely to trade in a 1.0275/1.0355 range.”
Pound Sterling Routed as a Truss 2.0 Episode Gets Underway
PIVOT POINT – 1.23931
GBP/USD is more is likely to trade in a 1.26050/1.20654 range
However, despite long-term debt yields reaching 30-year highs, the FX market has been relatively sanguine.
It looks as though FX has suddenly taken notice.
“A UK asset selloff has led the pound over 1% lower this morning as 10-year gilt yields have spiked to the highest level since 2008, inflation breakeven have risen to 3.58%, and 10bps in Bank of England cuts have been priced out for 2025,” says Kyle Chapman, FX Markets Analyst at Ballinger Group.
Typically rising bond yields would be associated with a stronger currency, but we are not seeing this:
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate has dropped to a daily loss of 1% taking it to 1.2345, the Pound to Euro exchange rate is down 0.5% at 1.20.
Japanese Yen trims a part of modest intraday gains; USD/JPY climbs back above 158.00
PIVOT POINT – 157.140
USD/JPY is more is likely to trade in a 136.716/161.823 range
The Japanese Yen strengthens in reaction to strong wage growth data from Japan. The uncertainty over the likely timing of the next BoJ rate hike might cap the JPY. Hawkish Fed, and elevated US bond yields should support the USD/JPY pair.
From a technical perspective, any subsequent slide is likely to attract some dip-buying near the 157.55-157.50 horizontal zone. Some follow-through selling, however, could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards the 157.00-mark route to the next relevant support near the 156.75 region and the weekly low, around the 156.25-156.20 area. This is followed by the 156.00 mark, which if broken decisively might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.
On the flip side, the 158.55 region, or the multi-month top touched on Wednesday, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 159.00 mark. The
AUD/USD: Below 0.6180 Before Further Weakness Can be Expected
PIVOT POINT – 0.62147
AUD/USD is more is likely to trade in a
0.65486/0.61735 range
Provided that Australian Dollar (AUD) remains below 0.6245, it could test the major support of 0.6180 before a rebound is likely. In the longer run, AUD must break and remain below 0.6180 before further weakness can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
Likelihood of AUD breaking clearly 0.6180 is not high
24-HOUR VIEW: “When AUD was trading at 0.6230 in early Asia0n trade yesterday, we noted ‘a slight increase in downward momentum.’ However, we held the view that ‘this is likely to result in a lower trading range of 0.6215/0.6265 instead of a sustained decline.’ In London trade, AUD fell sharply, but briefly, to 0.6188. It rebounded from the low to close at 0.6216 (-0.24%). The increase in downward momentum is not enough to suggest a sustained decline. However, provided that AUD remains below 0.6245 (minor resistance is at 0.6225), it could test the major support at 0.6180 before another rebound is likely.”
WTI CRUDE OIL is more is likely Pullback in the Next upcoming week.
Pivot point – 73.48
WTI CRUDE OIL is more is likely to trade in a 70.74/75.90 range
WTI crude oil futures hovered above $73 per barrel on Thursday, paring earlier losses as investors weighed a sharp rise in US fuel inventories against concerns over tighter supplies. The latest EIA report showed a nearly 1-million-barrel drop in US crude stockpiles last week, the seventh consecutive decline, but also significant increases of 6.3 million barrels in gasoline and 6.1 million in distillates. Meanwhile, OPEC output fell in December after two months of growth, as UAE field maintenance offset gains, including a rise in Nigerian production. Russian oil output also dropped below OPEC+ targets, with exports hitting their lowest level since August 2023. In the US, anticipated cold weather is expected to boost heating fuel demand. Conversely, data from China showed near-zero consumer inflation, highlighting weak domestic demand and raising deflation concerns from the key consumer.
XAU/USD Gold prices held above $2,660 per ounce on Thursday
Pivot point – 2659.30
XAU/USD is more is likely to trade in a 2596/2720 range
Gold prices held above $2,660 per ounce on Thursday, maintaining recent gains as investors continued to assess the Fed’s monetary policy outlook ahead of key US jobs data. The latest FOMC minutes indicated inflation is likely to slow this year, but policymakers noted the risk of persistent price pressures, partly due to Trump’s policies. The central bank also signaled that it may be nearing a point to slow the pace of policy easing, reducing the appeal of the non-yielding metal. Meanwhile, gold found support after a weaker-than-expected private employment report for December, reinforced the notion that the Fed may need to adopt a less cautious approach to rate cuts. Elsewhere, physically-backed gold ETFs saw their first inflow in four years, led by Asia, with North American funds recording their first positive annual flow since 2020 and European outflows narrowing compared to 2023, according to the World Gold Council.
Disclaimer: The figures provided are based on current technical analysis and should not be considered financial advice. Always seek guidance from a professional financial advisor before engaging in forex trading.
Notice: The data presented is derived from technical analysis and does not constitute financial advice. For those trading in forex, consulting a qualified financial advisor prior to making investment decisions is strongly recommended.
Caution: The information above reflects ongoing technical analysis and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Forex trading involves high volatility, and without proper knowledge, you risk losing all your capital. It is essential to consult with a financial advisor before investing.
Advisory: The insights shared are the result of technical analysis and are not intended as financial advice. Forex traders should seek advice from professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Remember, the forex market is highly volatile, and trading without adequate knowledge can lead to significant losses.
Important: The analysis provided is for informational purposes only and should not be seen as financial advice. Forex trading carries substantial risks, and it is advisable to consult financial advisors before proceeding with any investments. This content is intended solely for Wealth Management Education purposes.