Daily Market Outlook, 18 May, 2020

Market Wrap: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

The S&P 500 closed higher after swinging between gains and losses on Friday as investors weighed worries about Sino-U.S. trade relations and weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data against growing optimism that easing coronavirus restrictions would boost activity this month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.25% to 23,686.20, the S&P 500 higher 0.40%, to 2,864.15 and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 70.84 points (0.79%) to 9,015.70.

Asian shares were led higher by S&P 500 futures on Monday and oil prices hit a five-week peak as countries’ efforts to re-open their economies stirred hopes the world was nearer to emerging from recession.

MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan down 0.31% to 595 levels. Australian index rose 1.05% to 5,460.80 and Japanese market higher 0.48% to 20,133.50.

European stocks were higher on Monday, with the Stoxx Europe 50 Index rose 1.97% to 2,825.55, Germany’s DAX gained 2.27% to 10,701.20 and France’s CAC climbed 1.96% to 4,361.20 and U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 2.22% to 5,928.11.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose as demand for safe asset grow again, today 10-year bond yield up 1.20% to 0.648.

Oil prices climbed by more than $1 a barrel on Monday to their highest in more than a month, supported by ongoing output cuts and signs of gradual recovery in fuel demand as more countries ease curbs imposed to stop the coronavirus pandemic spreading.

Spot Brent crude rose 4.25% to $33.88 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 5.45% to $31.16 a barrel.

Gold rose to the highest in more than seven years after the Federal Reserve said stocks and asset prices could suffer a significant hit from the coronavirus pandemic, and warned the process of economic recovery may stretch through until the end of next year. Today, gold prices up 0.69% to $1760 per ounce.

Market Wrap: Forex

The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia, giving up some of its gains on Friday.

Today, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, down 0.10% to 100.375.

The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) widely traded pair higher by 0.10% today. This left the pairing trading around $1.08200. The pound traded 0.05% higher to 1.21060.

The Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar on Friday as demand for safe currency rose. Today US/JPY rose 0.20% to 107.220.

Other commodity-related currency broadly edged higher against U.S dollar, AUD/USD rose 0.47% to 0.64440 and NZD/USD climbed 0.50% to 0.59960.


EUR/USD Intraday: Trend upside

Our pivot point is at 1.08000

Preferable Price Action: Take Long positions above pivot level with targets at 1.08487 & 1.08736  in extension.

Alternative Price Action: Below pivot looks for further downside at 1.07538 & 1.7283.

Comment: pair above 20MA & 55MA and MACD in negative territory.

Green Lines Indicate Resistance Levels  – Red Lines Indicates Support Levels 
Light Blue is a Pivot Point   – Black represents the price when the report was produced


GBP/USD Intraday: Trend downside

Our pivot point is at 1.21400

Preferable Price Action: Short positions below pivot with targets at 1.20771 & 1.20475 in extension.

Alternative Price Action: Price above pivot would call for further upside to 1.22029 & 1.22331.

Comment: MACD in the negative zone and pair below 20MA &  55MA.

Green Lines Indicate Resistance Levels  – Red Lines Indicates Support Levels 
Light Blue is a Pivot Point   – Black represents the price when the report was produced


JPY/USD Intraday: Bias on the upside

Our pivot point is at 107.050

Preferable Price Action: Long position above pivot with the target at 107.406 and 107.648 in extension.

Alternative Price Action: The downside breakout of pivot would call for 106.674 and 106.433.

Comment: Pair above 20MA & 55MA and RSI below 50 levels.

Green Lines Indicate Resistance Levels  – Red Lines Indicates Support Levels 

Light Blue is a Pivot Point   – Black represents the price when the report was produced


AUD/USD Intraday: Support at 0.64200

Our pivot point is at 0.64200

Preferable Price Action: Long positions above pivot with targets at 0.64648 & 0.64909 in extension.

Alternative Price Action: Below pivot looks for further downside with 0.63754 & 0.63496 as targets.

Comment: MACD in the positive zone and RSI at 50 levels.

Green Lines Indicate Resistance Levels  – Red Lines Indicates Support Levels 
Light Blue is a Pivot Point   – Black represents the price when the report was produced


CRUDEOIL Intraday: Strong trend upside

Our pivot point is at 30.25 

Preferable Price Action: Buy crude above pivot with targets at 31.82 and 32.61 in extension.

Alternative Price Action: Below pivots sell Oil with 28.59 & 27.78 as targets.

Comment: RSI at oversold levels and price above 20MA & 55MA.

Green Lines Indicate Resistance Levels  – Red Lines Indicates Support Levels 
Light Blue is a Pivot Point   – Black represents the price when the report was produced


XAU/USD Intraday: Trend continuously rise

Our pivot point is at 1755.00

Preferable Price Action: Further upside to 1768.12 & 1776.18 level.

Alternative Price Action: If price gives downside breakout of a pivot, then price extends to 1741.40 and 1732.94.

Comment: RSI above 50 level mark and price above 20MA & 55MA.

Green Lines Indicate Resistance Levels  – Red Lines Indicates Support Levels 
Light Blue is a Pivot Point   – Black represents the price when the report was produced


Dow Jones Intraday: Bias on the upside

Our pivot point is at 23750.00 

Preferable Price Action: Take buy positions above pivot with targets at 24194.61 & 24441.05 in extension.

Alternative Price Action: Below 23750.00 looks for further downside to 23305.03 & 23040.55.

Comment: Inde above 20MA & 55MA and also MACD in positive territory.

Green Lines Indicate Resistance Levels  – Red Lines Indicates Support Levels 
Light Blue is a Pivot Point   – Black represents the price when the report was produced7

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